Though it has recently taken a back seat to the civil war in Syria, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has often been the topic of great discussion in international media. Not only is it an issue hotly debated and extremely well researched, peace efforts have cost the government entities and NGOs billions of dollars. There are countless organizations dedicated to bridging the gap between Israelis and Palestinians, sending their kids to fancy camps where they can learn to cooperate and see the other’s point of view or paying for scholars from both sides to attend peacemaking seminars in renowned universities. While Israel-Palestine receives this immense and almost incomprehensible global attention, other dangerous and destructive conflicts go on virtually unnoticed. This article will discuss one of them: Nagorny-Karabakh.
Background
In 1988, the Armenian population of Nagorny-Karabakh (NK) took to the streets, demanding to join Armenia; shortly, they were joined by citizens of Armenia proper. At the time, the overall population of NK was approximately 192,000 with the majority (76%) being Armenian, but the territory belonged to Azerbaijan. On 10 December, 1991 the leaders of the Armenian population in NK declared independence from the Azerbaijani state and armed conflict ensued.
The conflict escalated into a full-blown war between Azerbaijan and Armenia with the collapse of the USSR. The brutal and bloody war lasted until 1994. While the war waged on, many human rights catastrophes occurred, which most of the world remains unaware of. The Khojaly Massacre is a perfect example: the village of Khojaly was an Azeri stronghold in the territorial corridor between NK and Armenia proper. In their effort to seize it, in February 1992, the Armenian troops massacred over 600 civilians and tortured many others. Of course, Armenian civilians were also killed and injured in the 3 year war. Overall, the war cost between 24,000-36,000 lives and left over 75,000 injured. Many more civilians were displaced.
In 1994, the Russian government was able to broker a ceasefire. The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic enjoys de facto autonomy, but its independence remains unrecognized by the international community. Today, the conflict is officially frozen, but could heat up again at any time.
A Lasting Impact
In Azerbaijan, where I am currently stationed, the Nagorny-Karabakh War remains a deep seated trauma and the desire for a resolution is very much alive. In fact, the conflict is almost omnipresent. Almost every person I have met here has asked me my opinion about the conflict. Furthermore, when I visited the historic palace of Shirvanshah, a 15th century complex in Baku, I found it littered with signs about people who died there as a result of Armenian attacks in Azerbaijan proper. Relations with Armenia are so bad here that when my host got me a cell phone in his name he said “just don’t call anyone in Armenia.” Most recently, I asked my students to introduce myself and tell me where they were from; one of them said “Baku, but my family is from Karabakh. It is occupied by Armenians.”
The war is more than memory in Azerbaijan. According to Lionel Beehner, “just under 10% of Azerbaijani’s population remains displaced in the region” as a result of the war (http://www.cfr.org/armenia/nagorno-karabakh-crisis-caucasus/p9148). While they are taken care of by the government, from what I have been told, they remain without permanent homes as an everlasting reminder of the war that never truly ended. The war has also impacted Azerbaijan’s foreign relations. For example, Iran’s support for Armenia continues to embitter the already cold relationship between Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic.
Azerbaijan lost more than Nagorny-Karabakh itself in the war. The Armenian autonomy captured seven additional regions surrounding Karabakh, which were not majority-Armenian territories. these territories also remain occupied, leaving 20% of Azerbaijan under foreign occupation.
The war has also taken a toll on Armenia, as it left in its aftermath 235,000 Armenian refugees.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) established the Minsk Group in 1992 as a forum for resolving the conflict. Thus far the group, chaired by the US, France, and Russia, has been unsuccessful.
An Explosive Conflict
In addition to its lasting humanitarian impact, the conflict is far from over even though the war is not active at the moment. Shooting incidents on the border are, in fact, quite frequent according to the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (http://iwpr.net/report-news/gunfire-extension-politics-azeri-armenian-border). Indeed, other than the aforementioned border incidents, the Nagorny-Karabakh conflict has been cold so far. However, escalation on the contact line could easily lead to a broader violent confrontation. The fact that Azerbaijan’s military budget has reached $3.7 billion in the last year clearly demonstrates that the possibility of conflict is on the leadership’s mind (http://en.apa.az/news/195357).
Another war between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be a costly one. In addition to losses in life and humanitarian issues on both sides, such a conflict would have serious fallout in the region and a global impact.
One of the oldest oil-producing countries in the world, Azerbaijan is a critical supplier in the European market (http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=AJ). Local violence is likely to disrupt Azerbaijan’s ability to export its oil, leading to instability and disruptions in the market. Moreover, any Azeri-Armenian conflict is likely to spill over. The major powers surrounding these two countries, Russia, Iran, and Turkey would become involved. Great power intervention would doubtlessly escalate the conflict into a wider regional confrontation. With the greater Middle East already in disarray, further violence could be catastrophic.
Furthermore, last time around Chechen radicals including the notorious Shamil Basayev fought with Azerbaijan (http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/02/24/president-interview-and-tragic-anniversary/9vpa?reloadFlag=1). Should another war break out, especially in today’s ever-more radicalized environment of the Caucuses, it is likely to happen again. Thus, in the chaos of further conflict would open a door for radicals in this country that is otherwise stable and tolerant.
What’s Next?
As it were, the conflict seems intractable. At least in Azerbaijan, there is little faith in the peace process. The popular opinion, as I heard it, is that Azerbaijan will except nothing short having Nagorny-Karabakh fully returned and that the Armenians are the exclusively hindering the peace process because they are not interested in a resolution. I am certain similar opinions are prevalent in the Armenian side. As it were, therefore, there will not be popular pressure on the Azerbaijani and Armenian governments to reach a resolution.
Thus, international intervention is called for. It is not enough for the major powers to say they are committed to a peace process in the South Caucuses, nor is it sufficient for them to declare that without progress the international community will lose faith in the leaders’ commitment to peace, as they at the G8 Summit in 2011. Words need to translate into actions, and it is especially important for the United States to be involved.
Azerbaijan has been a great ally to us. According to former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, “Azerbaijan was one of the first countries to offer support after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States […]the southwestern Asia country provided valuable access and overflight rights for coalition aircraft, and sent peacekeepers to Afghanistan in support of Operation Enduring Freedom” (http://www.defense.gov/News/NewsArticle.aspx?ID=25519). This alone should promote our desire to help find a peaceful resolution to the Nagorny-Karabakh Conflict.
Furthermore, preventing the spread of violence in the region is in our interest for the reasons stated above.
Finally, Russia has been very active in this conflict. Most likely, the former leader of the USSR seeks to increase its power and influence in the South Caucuses by playing the role of peacemaker. We should strive to balance Russia’s power in this strategic region. Not to mention the recent Syria debacle, in which the Russians came up with a diplomatic solution that both alleviated the chemical weapons problem (Assad’s arsenal is being dismantled- http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/10/syria-disarmament-team-launches-mission-20131018223931432.html) while we almost got militarily involved. We need a diplomatic victory.
A just resolution to the Nagorny-Karabkh is in everyone’s best interest and it is my sincere hope to at least see some progress firsthand from here, the historic city of Baku.
South of Russia, North of Iran 